Current Events: Election 2008: Mike Huckabee's Perfect Political Storm

In the last two weeks the race for the Republican Party nomination in election 2008 has seen the first signs of political movement in months. Until November, the race had seen Giuliani as the clear front runner. However, conservative Republicans remain wary of his personal background and positions on social issues. Since Fred Thompson entered the race he has held the number two position in the polls. John McCain has badly trailed the leaders since his campaign imploded over the summer. Mitt Romney continues to have problems with the Republican base because of his Mormon religion. Everyone else in the campaign was under ten percent of the total vote in the public opinion polls and they were marginally viable.

Let's first start with the campaign of Fred Thompson. His campaign speeches have so lacked passion that he is now asking his Iowa audiences for a round of applause for himself. Next, when Thompson went on Fox News for an interview, Carl Cameron of Fox News trying to encourage his studio to hurry up so the interview could start, said into his microphone: "The next president of the United States has a schedule to keep." Standing beside him, a stoic Mr. Thompson interjected: "And so do I." Thompson's campaign is imploding with staff defections and a candidate that has no real energy for the campaign trail since he is only campaigning a couple of days per week. Thompson's poll numbers are dropping and he is down to 16% of the national vote. He is well behind in the early primary voting states. Thompson is representing the conservative vote of the party. Soon this vote will be looking elsewhere for a candidate.

Meanwhile, the opposite is happening in the campaign of Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has moved above 10 % of the vote nationally. The more impressive poll numbers for him have just been released in the first voting state of Iowa. Huckabee has surged into second place and is only 5% behind Mitt Romney for the lead in the Iowa Caucuses.

Mitt Romney still has a sizeable lead in the earliest voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Romney is using his multimillion dollar fortune to buy advertising spots for his campaign in these states. He is hoping three early primary victories will erode Giuliani's substantial lead nationally.

Rudy Giuliani looks like he will lose the three earliest primary voting states. This is sure to make him look vulnerable and is a risky strategy for his campaign. He needs to hold on to his large nationwide lead despite the early favorable publicity that Romney will enjoy from the media.

These are the dynamics of the Republican Presidential election in mid November 2007. There are contrary indicators everywhere. Giuliani has the nationwide lead in the polls and name recognition but has not "sealed the deal" with primary voters. Romney leads in the earliest primaries, but does not have the support of the base of the party. Thompson's campaign is a disaster and Mike Huckabee 's campaign is surging.

With these dynamics in mind, is there a scenario where little known candidate Mike Huckabee could win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? It would take a perfect political storm for him. It's a real long shot, but it's possible. Consider the following scenario: Huckabee wins Iowa or comes in a very close second. The media response is that he is the surprise candidate and they give him the favorable publicity. Romney wins New Hampshire and Michigan. Thompson drops out of the race and Giuliani is seen as vulnerable. The voters currently backing Thompson move to Huckabee since he is considered a Christian conservative. Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney battle it out until the convention where anyone could win.

Of course, currently Huckabee does not have the money that Romney and Giuliani have to contest every state. He also would have to withstand a heightened scrutiny of his record while governor of Arkansas. As the details of his record come out, voters may not like what they see. As far as electability, it is interesting to note that the latest Rasmussen poll has Huckabee statistically tied with Hillary Clinton in a general election match up. Another advantage for Huckabee is that this may be a year that the voters want change and a new face in Washington, D.C.

See also:
The World-Wide-Web And The 2008 Presidential Race
Election 2008: Abortion Decision Raises The Stakes
Republican Candidates